4.25.2018
Retribution, Jacobsen - B
This is the third book by the author, and needless to say, I am hooked, as I read the first one just a bit over a month ago. Jacobsen is a Danish orthopedic surgeon and introduces us to something I had no clue about. Denmark has a substantial special forces arm, has been an enthusiastic NATO supporter, and has suffered more casualties per soldiers served, in the Middle East and Afghanistan, than any other member. So we get to visit the decades-old war on terror from a very different perspective.
The book opens up with a hypothetical attack at Tivoli Gardens in Copenhagen that stuns and traumatizes the nation. The action switches back and forth between Jordan, where the attacks are planned, and the city, where they are trying to figure out what happened the first time and how to avoid a second attack. The author further develops the two characters from 'Trophy', adds a few more, and plots a devilish page-turner. A very fun read.
The book opens up with a hypothetical attack at Tivoli Gardens in Copenhagen that stuns and traumatizes the nation. The action switches back and forth between Jordan, where the attacks are planned, and the city, where they are trying to figure out what happened the first time and how to avoid a second attack. The author further develops the two characters from 'Trophy', adds a few more, and plots a devilish page-turner. A very fun read.
Dead Man's Blues, Celestin - B
Chicago 1928: third largest city in the world and corrupt to the core. Prohibition. Louis Armstrong. Al Capone. Mayor Big Bill Thompson. Dante the Gent. A judge who is also a mob undertaker. A missing heiress. Bugs Malone. A traitor in the Outfit. Bronzeville. The Black Belt. The Yards. State's Attorneys Office. Pinkerton's. Tunney v. Dempsey. Reefer, coke and horse.
This is a tale of Chicago in all of its Roaring 20's grit, color, life and whatever the opposite of glory is. Two searches are the background for this novel. The first involves Michael and Ida, a rather unique pair of Pinkerton Detectives. They hail from New Orleans, but have been working Chicago for some time. He's a former cop and she is colored, making them an unlikely pair. But they are effective. They are hired by a wealthy drug-addled Gold Coast matron concerned about her missing daughter. The second search is by Dante, called in from NY by Capone to try and sort out how and why a party for the local Republican* pols almost ended Capone's career when they all got sick on some rot-gut champagne. The intriguing and back-stabbing in the Outfit can get pretty complex. It is, of course, no surprise when the two searches converge.
This book is the second of what is intended to be a four book series. Jazz is an integral part of it, but of no interest to me, so I've skipped the previous one set in the Big Easy. Next up is NYC in the forties and I'll likely do that. The plotting has its weak points, but the scene-setting is very good.
*Thompson was the last Republican Mayor of the city. The corruption that is at the heart of the 'Chicago Way' has always been bi-partisan.
This is a tale of Chicago in all of its Roaring 20's grit, color, life and whatever the opposite of glory is. Two searches are the background for this novel. The first involves Michael and Ida, a rather unique pair of Pinkerton Detectives. They hail from New Orleans, but have been working Chicago for some time. He's a former cop and she is colored, making them an unlikely pair. But they are effective. They are hired by a wealthy drug-addled Gold Coast matron concerned about her missing daughter. The second search is by Dante, called in from NY by Capone to try and sort out how and why a party for the local Republican* pols almost ended Capone's career when they all got sick on some rot-gut champagne. The intriguing and back-stabbing in the Outfit can get pretty complex. It is, of course, no surprise when the two searches converge.
This book is the second of what is intended to be a four book series. Jazz is an integral part of it, but of no interest to me, so I've skipped the previous one set in the Big Easy. Next up is NYC in the forties and I'll likely do that. The plotting has its weak points, but the scene-setting is very good.
*Thompson was the last Republican Mayor of the city. The corruption that is at the heart of the 'Chicago Way' has always been bi-partisan.
4.17.2018
American Wolf: A True Story Of Survival And Obsession In The West, Blakeslee -B +
This fascinating book is about the Yellowstone Wolf Project that reintroduced the gray wolf in 1995. The wolf, which had once roamed from the Arctic to Mexico City, had been eliminated from the western US in 1926*. The rangers at Yellowstone had shot the wolves in the park because of their anxiety about the safety of the elk and other herbivores. They had not understood that predator and prey had sustained the ecosystem for millennia, and without wolves, the park was soon a mess. There were so many elk that they denuded the forests, causing increased run-off that disrupted the streams and rivers. The 1995 project was opposed by local ranchers and hunters, yet has been seen as a significant success. There are now approximately 1700 wolves in the greater Yellowstone area and the ecosystem has been reestablished. One of the intriguing aspects of wolves is their social interaction, group management and bonding skills; amongst predators, wolves are the most cooperative. Although each pack has but one alpha male and female, packs can grow to astounding sizes. The 'Druids' in the early oughts had almost three dozen wolves.
Much of the book is focused on an alpha female, O-Six, who gained national fame about a decade ago because she lived in Yellowstone, was not fearful of humans, and was spotted almost daily hunting, raising her cubs and patrolling her territory. Her efforts were observed by the park's legendary ranger, Rick McIntyre, who went fifteen years in a row without missing a day, who compiled notes on the wolves of over 5 million words, and who holds the record of 891 straight days with a sighting. O-Six succeeded in helping her first four cubs reach yearling status, and everyone was happy when she became pregnant a second time, delivering five pups in 2011. The following winter, her pack faced an existential threat when 19 'Mollies' left their challenging environment in the north of the park and entered the Lamar Valley. O-Six's pack was outnumbered, she had denned and was nursing a new group of pups. She launched herself over a line of Mollies and appeared to have disappeared over a cliff; her daughter, Middle Gray, charged off in a different direction. The effort succeeded and the confused Mollies dispersed. The following winter, Wyoming allowed unlimited wolf hunting after a long contentious battle, and O-Six was one of the first wolves shot in the state in almost a century. The death of "the most famous wolf in the world" made international headlines and was on national network news.
The wolves changed the local economies. There has been some livestock depredation, but the most important impact was the dramatic reduction of the elk herd. There once had been close to twenty-thousand elk in the area, and they were used to an easy life without predators. They were easy to hunt, supported a burgeoning hunting and guiding community, and filled many a local freezer. Reduced by two-thirds and now once again wary as prey should be, the elk went further and higher into the mountains. Idaho, Montana and Wyoming all sought to cull the wolves, and there has been considerable ongoing litigation. De-listing the wolves from the Endangered Species Act has been the objective of almost all of the locals. The conflict plays right into the century-old struggle between local authorities and the federal government over the management of government lands. It even played into control of the US Senate, as Democrat Jon Tester had to adopt an anti-wolf position in 2012 to hold off a Republican challenger. The impact on the park is called a 'trophic cascade' as the normalized ecosystem has led to more beaver, rodents, birds of prey, foxes, weasels, bears and pronghorns at the expense of coyotes and elk that had grown disproportionately because the wolves were not there.
The death of O-Six changed the dynamics of what was now a national debate. Six months later, Fish and Wildlife proposed de-listing the species in the lower 48. After over a million comments, they withdrew the proposal. An attempt to sneak anti-wolf language into a budget proposal failed. The story closes with the Park Service honoring Rick McIntyre on his twentieth-year of contributions to the Wolf Project and with his lecture about O-Six and her grand-parents, 21 and 42, and their long years together. Having made the wolves of Yellowstone world famous and a national concern, perhaps Rick didn't need all his notes for a book after all. This is a beautifully told, wonderful narrative and in my opinion (concededly urban and as one who has never fired a rifle hunting), well worth a read.
*Wolves have apparently always been active in northern Minnesota and the UP of Michigan.
Much of the book is focused on an alpha female, O-Six, who gained national fame about a decade ago because she lived in Yellowstone, was not fearful of humans, and was spotted almost daily hunting, raising her cubs and patrolling her territory. Her efforts were observed by the park's legendary ranger, Rick McIntyre, who went fifteen years in a row without missing a day, who compiled notes on the wolves of over 5 million words, and who holds the record of 891 straight days with a sighting. O-Six succeeded in helping her first four cubs reach yearling status, and everyone was happy when she became pregnant a second time, delivering five pups in 2011. The following winter, her pack faced an existential threat when 19 'Mollies' left their challenging environment in the north of the park and entered the Lamar Valley. O-Six's pack was outnumbered, she had denned and was nursing a new group of pups. She launched herself over a line of Mollies and appeared to have disappeared over a cliff; her daughter, Middle Gray, charged off in a different direction. The effort succeeded and the confused Mollies dispersed. The following winter, Wyoming allowed unlimited wolf hunting after a long contentious battle, and O-Six was one of the first wolves shot in the state in almost a century. The death of "the most famous wolf in the world" made international headlines and was on national network news.
The wolves changed the local economies. There has been some livestock depredation, but the most important impact was the dramatic reduction of the elk herd. There once had been close to twenty-thousand elk in the area, and they were used to an easy life without predators. They were easy to hunt, supported a burgeoning hunting and guiding community, and filled many a local freezer. Reduced by two-thirds and now once again wary as prey should be, the elk went further and higher into the mountains. Idaho, Montana and Wyoming all sought to cull the wolves, and there has been considerable ongoing litigation. De-listing the wolves from the Endangered Species Act has been the objective of almost all of the locals. The conflict plays right into the century-old struggle between local authorities and the federal government over the management of government lands. It even played into control of the US Senate, as Democrat Jon Tester had to adopt an anti-wolf position in 2012 to hold off a Republican challenger. The impact on the park is called a 'trophic cascade' as the normalized ecosystem has led to more beaver, rodents, birds of prey, foxes, weasels, bears and pronghorns at the expense of coyotes and elk that had grown disproportionately because the wolves were not there.
The death of O-Six changed the dynamics of what was now a national debate. Six months later, Fish and Wildlife proposed de-listing the species in the lower 48. After over a million comments, they withdrew the proposal. An attempt to sneak anti-wolf language into a budget proposal failed. The story closes with the Park Service honoring Rick McIntyre on his twentieth-year of contributions to the Wolf Project and with his lecture about O-Six and her grand-parents, 21 and 42, and their long years together. Having made the wolves of Yellowstone world famous and a national concern, perhaps Rick didn't need all his notes for a book after all. This is a beautifully told, wonderful narrative and in my opinion (concededly urban and as one who has never fired a rifle hunting), well worth a read.
*Wolves have apparently always been active in northern Minnesota and the UP of Michigan.
Resurrection Bay, Viksic - B-
This is a pretty solid mystery set in Melbourne, and since I do not think I've read a novel set in Australia in ages, that is a good thing. The protagonist is a late-30's security consultant who just happens to be deaf. He was six when he lost his hearing due to a case of meningitis. His ex is a gorgeous Aborigine who helps him out when one of his buddies and business associates is murdered. There is a bit of exploration of the plight of indigenous people, as well as deaf issues, thus making this a cut above the usual stuff I knock off in a day. But, just a cut.
Race To Judgement, Block - B
The author of this novel has a rather unique perspective on the events he portrays. He is a federal trial judge in the Eastern District of NY (EDNY), better known as Brooklyn. He tells the story of a very well-educated black trial lawyer who opposes the tyrannical goings on in the Brooklyn DA's office. His knowledge of the borough, its buildings and geography, and the ins and outs of the criminal justice system is sublime. He explores the fault line between Brooklyn's black community and the police, as well as the connivance between the city's establishment and Brooklyn's vast Hasidic community. There are a couple of fascinating trials and a DA's race, all based on actual facts. It's a very nicely done read, a bit weak on plot and character, but absolutely great on the law.
4.10.2018
Adenauer: The Father of the New Germany, Williams - B -
Konrad Adenauer was born to Catholic parents in Cologne in 1876. His upbringing was very strict and traditional. At 21, he completed university in Bonn, and after a four-year apprenticeship, became a lawyer. In 1906, he married Emma Weyer. Three years later, his first child was born and he entered politics, becoming the Deputy Mayor of Cologne. Tragedy struck the young family when Emma was diagnosed with terminal cancer in 1912. Nonetheless, Adenauer performed well throughout the war, during which Cologne was a major supply depot and support area for the Army, and was rewarded with election to the mayoralty in 1917.
The end of the war brought chaos, revolution and an occupation by the British. Adenauer played his hand well and rose to national prominence in the new Weimar Republic. At issue throughout the 1920's was France's desire to occupy the Rhineland and create a buffer between herself and the Prussians. When reparation payments faltered, France occupied the Ruhr valley. The Germans and the Allies debated endlessly about security and disarmament throughout the decade. The Germans wanted autonomy and the French assurances. Finally, in 1926, the British left Cologne; the French stayed in the Ruhr for four more years. Adenauer had worked closely with the British, but made a churlish speech upon their departure, forever earning their enmity. As the Depression took its toll, the Nazis rose to power and Adenauer was at least modestly complicit in accepting them as an antidote to the communists. That said, he offended Hitler and by March 1933, the fifty-seven-year-old was unemployed and without a penny to his name.
Afraid for his life, he took refuge in a Benedictine Abbey. His second wife, Gussi, remained in Cologne with their children. There then ensued three years of avoiding the Gestapo's attention and attempting to obtain some restitution from Cologne for his dismissal. In 1937, he received a payment from the city and a pension and was able to buy a home in Rhondorf, south of Cologne, where he and his family would live for the next thirty years. The Adenauer's settled into a comfortable retirement and no longer merited Nazi attention. After the failure of the Stauffenberg Plot in 1944, all the usual suspects, including Adenauer, were rounded up. With sons in the military, he was reprieved, survived the war and was asked by the Americans to resume as mayor, which he did in May 1945.
Cologne was in the British Zone and Adenauer was soon sacked. Free of responsibility, he had the time to participate in the founding of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Germany's center-right political party. He also began to reach out to the French to discuss his thoughts on their security needs, the centerpiece of which was the establishment of a Germany with a political focus on its non-Prussian heritage as well as the economic integration of the two countries. The Federal Republic of Germany was created in May, 1949. He was elected Chancellor of West Germany, an occupied nation with limited sovereignty. A few years later, Jean Monnet and Robert Schuman of France proposed a Franco-German coal and steel integration that led to the European Coal and Steel Community Treaty in 1951. Soon the Allied occupation ended, a financial settlement with Israel was reached, and full independence and participation in NATO were accomplished. Approaching eighty, he had brought W. Germany back into the concert of nations. His last years in office were dominated by Berlin and Khrushchev's desire to stir the pot; he ultimately fell in October, 1963 for deciding to side with de Gaulle's opposition to Britain's joining the EEC. In retirement, he tried but failed to influence the policies of his successor, published his memoirs, and visited Israel and Spain. He died in April, 1967 and is buried at his home.
How the biography of a man voted in 2003 as the greatest German of all time, a man whose career started when TR was in the White House and whose funeral was attended by LBJ could be so boring is hard to fathom. Clearly, he was a bit stiff and colorless, but he lived through some of the most momentous times in German history and was almost always on the right side of history. His anti-communist instincts rivaled Churchill's. I think Wikipedia prevails in a head-to-head competition here.
The end of the war brought chaos, revolution and an occupation by the British. Adenauer played his hand well and rose to national prominence in the new Weimar Republic. At issue throughout the 1920's was France's desire to occupy the Rhineland and create a buffer between herself and the Prussians. When reparation payments faltered, France occupied the Ruhr valley. The Germans and the Allies debated endlessly about security and disarmament throughout the decade. The Germans wanted autonomy and the French assurances. Finally, in 1926, the British left Cologne; the French stayed in the Ruhr for four more years. Adenauer had worked closely with the British, but made a churlish speech upon their departure, forever earning their enmity. As the Depression took its toll, the Nazis rose to power and Adenauer was at least modestly complicit in accepting them as an antidote to the communists. That said, he offended Hitler and by March 1933, the fifty-seven-year-old was unemployed and without a penny to his name.
Afraid for his life, he took refuge in a Benedictine Abbey. His second wife, Gussi, remained in Cologne with their children. There then ensued three years of avoiding the Gestapo's attention and attempting to obtain some restitution from Cologne for his dismissal. In 1937, he received a payment from the city and a pension and was able to buy a home in Rhondorf, south of Cologne, where he and his family would live for the next thirty years. The Adenauer's settled into a comfortable retirement and no longer merited Nazi attention. After the failure of the Stauffenberg Plot in 1944, all the usual suspects, including Adenauer, were rounded up. With sons in the military, he was reprieved, survived the war and was asked by the Americans to resume as mayor, which he did in May 1945.
Cologne was in the British Zone and Adenauer was soon sacked. Free of responsibility, he had the time to participate in the founding of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Germany's center-right political party. He also began to reach out to the French to discuss his thoughts on their security needs, the centerpiece of which was the establishment of a Germany with a political focus on its non-Prussian heritage as well as the economic integration of the two countries. The Federal Republic of Germany was created in May, 1949. He was elected Chancellor of West Germany, an occupied nation with limited sovereignty. A few years later, Jean Monnet and Robert Schuman of France proposed a Franco-German coal and steel integration that led to the European Coal and Steel Community Treaty in 1951. Soon the Allied occupation ended, a financial settlement with Israel was reached, and full independence and participation in NATO were accomplished. Approaching eighty, he had brought W. Germany back into the concert of nations. His last years in office were dominated by Berlin and Khrushchev's desire to stir the pot; he ultimately fell in October, 1963 for deciding to side with de Gaulle's opposition to Britain's joining the EEC. In retirement, he tried but failed to influence the policies of his successor, published his memoirs, and visited Israel and Spain. He died in April, 1967 and is buried at his home.
How the biography of a man voted in 2003 as the greatest German of all time, a man whose career started when TR was in the White House and whose funeral was attended by LBJ could be so boring is hard to fathom. Clearly, he was a bit stiff and colorless, but he lived through some of the most momentous times in German history and was almost always on the right side of history. His anti-communist instincts rivaled Churchill's. I think Wikipedia prevails in a head-to-head competition here.
The Guns Of Navarone, Maclean - B-
I was a 12-year-old when I saw this in a theater with my father. It, along with two other films I saw when I was becoming something other than a child, is forever seared in my memory, thus making it difficult to read this novel. It clearly lacks the immediacy of his debut, 'HMS Ulysses'. But it is a very well-written story, telling a good tale and defining interesting characters: Mallory—Gregory Peck—is a peerless leader, a man among men, and Andrea—Anthony Quinn—is a skillful, avenging Greek superman. Their struggles getting onto the island of Navarone and in touch with the local resistance take up well over half the book, and my recollection is that significantly less time was spent on that in the film. From there, the book and the movie diverge even more. Maclean was not the screenwriter and, as is often the case, the storyline goes off in a different direction. Of course, they succeed in their mission. However, I am left with the quandary of what to do about the other Maclean novels I optimistically downloaded, as this, and I suspect they, are just good, not great tales.
Greeks Bearing Gifts, Kerr - B
After thirteen novels in the Bernie Gunther series, it seems as if the author is getting better at historical background and weaker at mystery plotting. Here, we find Gunther in Athens working as a claims adjuster for Munich Re, trying to ascertain if a specific lost boat merits a payment. Along the way, we are treated to a lengthy exposé of Nazi atrocities, particularly in Salonica, and an interesting discourse on West Germany's return to respectability in the 1950's. We know that W. Germany was a necessary bulwark against the USSR and much was forgiven and forgotten because of that. The author is very harsh in his comments of Adenauer's policies ending denazification.
4.02.2018
Destined For War: Can America And China Escape The Thucydides's Trap, Allison - A*
"It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable." Thus wrote Thucydides about the Peloponnesian War 2500 years ago. The author's project at Harvard's Kennedy School identified sixteen examples of a power rising to challenge the established order and a dozen of them ended in war. Thus, this is a book about the impact of a rising China on the US and the global order and how to avoid the trap. It was the prime issue in a conversation that Obama and Xi had in Palm Springs, CA in 2015.
At some stage in the last few years, China surpassed the US economically. We are in second place after 150 years of being number one. China is close to catching us militarily in Asia and more importantly, wields and will continue to wield extraordinary economic power. We have declined to participate in the TPP, while their One Belt One Road projects throughout Eurasia are already twelve times the size of the Marshall Plan.
The author explores the rivalries between Athens/Sparta, Hapsburg Empire/France, Holland/England, Germany/France, and Japan/US. The common themes are entitlement, decline, fear, hubris and honor—all leading to war. He then turns to the granddaddy of them all: Germany/Britain. The UK's ministers were most concerned about Germany's 'capabilities' for it was not Wilhelm's occasional bellicosity, but rather the military's potential that caused fear for the well-being of the Empire. And it was not the German army or growing economy that frightened Great Britain, but its Navy. A challenge to the supremacy of the Royal Navy was a threat aimed at the heart of Great Britain. Germany had overtaken Britain economically in a mere generation; it had happened literally overnight. Both sides knew there were risks but neither was able to avoid the conflict. I will interject here though, that it was a time when total war was still considered a viable option as part of a nation's foreign policy agenda.
He then turns to America's rise 120 years ago and writes at length at what can only be called warmongering by TR. In bit more than a decade, we constructed twenty-five battleships, and Teddy steamed them around the world. Concluding that there was no point in fighting us, the British Foreign Office decided that 'accommodation' made the most strategic sense.
Under Xi, China today wants "to be rich, to be powerful and to be respected." The Chinese view their past as thousands of years of success, followed by a century of western-and Japanese-imposed humiliation. The CCP was able to evict the foreigners and end the subjugation. For the last thirty-five years, the Party has propelled China to its place of economic preeminence. And in that place atop the pyramid, they take the position that Asia is to be managed by Asians, and that America's role must recede. China's military focus on denying access to their coast has already made it problematical for the US Navy to operate within a thousand miles of it. Many believe that in a conventional war, China could 'fight and win'.
Our cultural differences are massive. We are Judeo-Christian, Greco-Roman and clearly Western; they are Confucian. We view government as a necessary evil; they view it as a necessity. We cherish the individual; they, the collective. We believe in propagating democracy; they deeply resent our endless preaching. We treasure the diversity of our people; they are almost all Han Chinese. Our time horizon is the next quarter; theirs is a century. The American focus on a 'rule-based order' is offensive because the Chinese had no say in making the rules. And, they view Obama's 'pivot' as a direct threat to their security because it implies we will not respect or accept their worldview.
Red China has twice attacked a superior force. In 1950, Mao attacked the US in Korea when MacArthur approached the Yalu River. In 1969, he escalated tensions and attacked the Soviets during a border dispute on the Amur River. The author sees them willing to do so again in their expansive definition of the South China Sea, over the Korean peninsula, over a Taiwanese move to independence and over the sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands. Those are just the obvious possibilities.
Turning to the cases where the trap did not lead to war, the author analyzes four, but it is the Cold War example that resonates because Mutually Assured Destruction ruled out war, and likely should again. Add to that what some call Mutually Assured Economic Destruction because of our close ties to China, increases the hope of a peaceful resolution.
However, "[t]here is no 'solution' for the dramatic resurgence of a 5,000-year-old civilization with 1.4 billion people." Lee Kuan Yew, the late leader of Singapore, pointed out that China "will insist on being China, not an honorary member of the west." Accommodation, which is what the UK did 120 years ago when we bullied our way onto the world scene, is not appeasement and could include reducing our support for Taiwan in exchange for concessions elsewhere. Xi offered Obama an understanding at Palm Springs and he declined. Some form of detente for a generation or two could also be negotiated. Perhaps we could coordinate to combat nuclear proliferation, terrorism or climate change together. Allison's closing thought is that we need to decide what is really important to us in the western Pacific. Do we really want to go to war over Taiwan or the atolls the Chinese are building on? We need to understand China and come to grips that they are likely to be much stronger than we will be. There is no assurance that their economy will continue to grow in a straight line, but it has for quite some time. We need a long-term plan, something analogous to containment and not ad-hoc knee-jerk responses with an eye on the news cycle. Both countries should repair matters at home because neither dysfunctional 'decadent democracy' nor 'responsive authoritarianism' suppressing human nature is fit to manage the future's challenges. The author closes with Shakespeare: our destiny "lies not in our stars, but in ourselves." I believe this is a must-read and a great book. It is brief, well-written, thoughtful about the past and insightful about the future.
At some stage in the last few years, China surpassed the US economically. We are in second place after 150 years of being number one. China is close to catching us militarily in Asia and more importantly, wields and will continue to wield extraordinary economic power. We have declined to participate in the TPP, while their One Belt One Road projects throughout Eurasia are already twelve times the size of the Marshall Plan.
The author explores the rivalries between Athens/Sparta, Hapsburg Empire/France, Holland/England, Germany/France, and Japan/US. The common themes are entitlement, decline, fear, hubris and honor—all leading to war. He then turns to the granddaddy of them all: Germany/Britain. The UK's ministers were most concerned about Germany's 'capabilities' for it was not Wilhelm's occasional bellicosity, but rather the military's potential that caused fear for the well-being of the Empire. And it was not the German army or growing economy that frightened Great Britain, but its Navy. A challenge to the supremacy of the Royal Navy was a threat aimed at the heart of Great Britain. Germany had overtaken Britain economically in a mere generation; it had happened literally overnight. Both sides knew there were risks but neither was able to avoid the conflict. I will interject here though, that it was a time when total war was still considered a viable option as part of a nation's foreign policy agenda.
He then turns to America's rise 120 years ago and writes at length at what can only be called warmongering by TR. In bit more than a decade, we constructed twenty-five battleships, and Teddy steamed them around the world. Concluding that there was no point in fighting us, the British Foreign Office decided that 'accommodation' made the most strategic sense.
Under Xi, China today wants "to be rich, to be powerful and to be respected." The Chinese view their past as thousands of years of success, followed by a century of western-and Japanese-imposed humiliation. The CCP was able to evict the foreigners and end the subjugation. For the last thirty-five years, the Party has propelled China to its place of economic preeminence. And in that place atop the pyramid, they take the position that Asia is to be managed by Asians, and that America's role must recede. China's military focus on denying access to their coast has already made it problematical for the US Navy to operate within a thousand miles of it. Many believe that in a conventional war, China could 'fight and win'.
Our cultural differences are massive. We are Judeo-Christian, Greco-Roman and clearly Western; they are Confucian. We view government as a necessary evil; they view it as a necessity. We cherish the individual; they, the collective. We believe in propagating democracy; they deeply resent our endless preaching. We treasure the diversity of our people; they are almost all Han Chinese. Our time horizon is the next quarter; theirs is a century. The American focus on a 'rule-based order' is offensive because the Chinese had no say in making the rules. And, they view Obama's 'pivot' as a direct threat to their security because it implies we will not respect or accept their worldview.
Red China has twice attacked a superior force. In 1950, Mao attacked the US in Korea when MacArthur approached the Yalu River. In 1969, he escalated tensions and attacked the Soviets during a border dispute on the Amur River. The author sees them willing to do so again in their expansive definition of the South China Sea, over the Korean peninsula, over a Taiwanese move to independence and over the sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands. Those are just the obvious possibilities.
Turning to the cases where the trap did not lead to war, the author analyzes four, but it is the Cold War example that resonates because Mutually Assured Destruction ruled out war, and likely should again. Add to that what some call Mutually Assured Economic Destruction because of our close ties to China, increases the hope of a peaceful resolution.
However, "[t]here is no 'solution' for the dramatic resurgence of a 5,000-year-old civilization with 1.4 billion people." Lee Kuan Yew, the late leader of Singapore, pointed out that China "will insist on being China, not an honorary member of the west." Accommodation, which is what the UK did 120 years ago when we bullied our way onto the world scene, is not appeasement and could include reducing our support for Taiwan in exchange for concessions elsewhere. Xi offered Obama an understanding at Palm Springs and he declined. Some form of detente for a generation or two could also be negotiated. Perhaps we could coordinate to combat nuclear proliferation, terrorism or climate change together. Allison's closing thought is that we need to decide what is really important to us in the western Pacific. Do we really want to go to war over Taiwan or the atolls the Chinese are building on? We need to understand China and come to grips that they are likely to be much stronger than we will be. There is no assurance that their economy will continue to grow in a straight line, but it has for quite some time. We need a long-term plan, something analogous to containment and not ad-hoc knee-jerk responses with an eye on the news cycle. Both countries should repair matters at home because neither dysfunctional 'decadent democracy' nor 'responsive authoritarianism' suppressing human nature is fit to manage the future's challenges. The author closes with Shakespeare: our destiny "lies not in our stars, but in ourselves." I believe this is a must-read and a great book. It is brief, well-written, thoughtful about the past and insightful about the future.
When The Dead Arise, Jacobsen - B+
This fabulous novel is set in Italy and features the efforts of a young assistant prosecutor pursuing a vicious series of crimes attributable to the Camorra. Since one of the victims was her father, a general in the national police, her motive is not just ambition, but ambition spiced with revenge. The plot is complex, believable and filled with a fantastic cast of characters: an old commanding mafia don, his Albanian henchman, a mysterious assassin, a famous fashion designer, an equally famous scientist and motorbike enthusiast, a driven prosecutor and Sabrina D'Avalo, a worthy heroine. This is fun for all.
Mephisto Waltz, Tallis - C+
Max Lieberman and Oskar Reinhard are friends in 1904 Vienna. Max is a psychiatrist who helps out Oskar, a detective with the Security Office. The plot involves anarchists/socialists planning to bomb a gathering of high ranking civil servants and an archduke. The author does a nice job setting up the time and place, but fails to deliver an interesting storyline and dumbs down the whole book with constant inane asides. For example, Ferry Porsche, who apparently was a driver for the royal family, appears for a moment and Reinhard says he can't see the automobile catching on. Porsche's appearance is interesting—the comment takes away from it.
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