Waste Land: A World In Permanent Crisis, Kaplan - B+

               The author, one of my all-time favorites, divides this brief 187-page overview into three parts:  Weimar Goes Global, The Great Powers' Decline, and Crowds and Chaos. 

              "Weimar is a candy-coated horror tale:  a cradle of modernity that gave birth to fascism and totalitarianism."  "The entire world is now one big Weimar, connected enough for one part to mortally influence the other parts, yet not connected enough to be politically coherent." We are at "a fragile phase of technological and political transition."  Most governments around the world do not provide the stability necessary to preserve a world order as well as their predecessors, the monarchies of Europe and the Middle East, once did.  In today's much closer world, totalitarianism and authoritarianism can lead to cataclysm. Should such instability tip into war, the artificial intelligence-driven consequences could be extreme.  That said, it is humans, particularly charismatic and demagogic leaders such as Napoleon, Hitler, and Putin, who cause wars.  Add to the mix climate change, burgeoning populations, drought, famine, and a reduction in groundwater around the world to the tempestuous mix.

          The creative technological innovations expanding globalization have put immense pressure on America, Russia, and China.  In Iraq and Ukraine, two of these superpowers initiated "truly unnecessary and disastrous wars of choice."  These wars "show the dearth of wise and cautious leadership" in both countries.  The US has recovered from its "far-flung imperial adventure gone awry," because Iraq is central to our geopolitical  identity.  Our leadership has deteriorated, but Putin has "become increasingly dangerous  autocratic, and vicious."  The consequence of a failed political entity is the abject Russian incompetence and total humiliation of the invasion of Ukraine.  At some stage, Western Europe will have to deal with the aftermath of Putin's authoritarian failures as Russia has always been Europe's "unsolvable dilemma."

          China's peaceful meteoric ascension to world superpower can be ascribed to one genius - Deng Xiaoping.  He introduced aspects of capitalism gradually, unlike America's attempt to force feed it to Russia.  Unlike Deng, Xi has provoked tensions and conflict abroad.  We now face two autocrats instead of the benign Gorbachev and Deng.  Xi is nothing but a Leninist idealogue focused on struggle.  The vast size of China means Xi is exponentially more threatening than Putin.  His Mao-like return to authoritarianism is crippling the economy of a country in population decline.  Our trade linkage immeasurably complicates the geopolitical rivalry.

         Russia remains the major threat to world stability because there is nothing binding it together except Putin, and there is no system in place for when he dies.  Xi threatens Asia, and the Middle East continues its century-long turmoil. (This book was completed last year, and does not consider the economic and foreign policies of an unhinged American regime.)

         Increasing urban density is another challenge to stability. Urbanization and social media drive underlying forces that affect foreign policies.  Today's cities are "re-segregating by income, education, and class."  Social media can amplify crowd psychology, as can news organizations whose opinions reverberate far and wide and can lead a horde in one direction or another. Think Fox News.  The New York Times has comparable power, but uses it more wisely.  Today's internet-fueled mob is no different than the sans-culottes centuries ago.  It must also be stated that positive change may come from this dynamic, as, for example, young people in Iran have tried to initiate.

       Robert Kaplan is the most insightful and thoughtful assessor of where our lives are whom I have ever read, and his conclusions are quite negative.  "We are up against the natural process of history that will undermine the West, and all it stands for."  He hopes we can fight it, but isn't optimistic.  Every one of his books is filled with remarkable insights.  One literally has to stop on every page and think about it.  This one ends on a down note but nonetheless, it should be read.  And it's only 187 pages of text.