The Adolescence of Technology: Confronting and Overcoming the Risks of Powerful AI, Amodei

       This is the CEO of Anthropic's essay on the "risks we are about to face." Since no one knows where this is headed, corporate governance and government regulation will be necessary. It is probable that in a few years AI will be better than humans at everything. Think of it as "a country of geniuses in a datacenter." There are five primary categories of risk.

       The first is autonomy risk. AI could do something dangerous on its own. "AI models are unpredictable and develop a wide range of undesirable or strange behaviors." They could be deleterious to humanity. The defenses are the responsibility of the creating company and the government. Anthropic has written a constitution for Claude that it believes will be able to train Claude not to act against its constitution. Also, diagnostic tools can be developed to assess whether mistakes are being made. Coordination and transparency among all in the business are necessary, as is legislation that directly incentivizes proper outcomes. New York and California have already passed transparency legislation. The risks are real, and we need to band together to protect ourselves.

        The second risk is an individual who uses AI to do evil. For example, AI will enable an individual to create a bioweapon. In fact, biology is the area with the highest risks by far. The defense against this is the creator company's putting guardrails on their systems, government action to help measure and monitor risks, and enhanced sensors to detect anything deleterious to life.

         Equally concerning would be nefarious conduct by an entity larger than an individual, such as an autocracy. Autonomous weapons, extensive surveillance, and pervasive propaganda are the likely categories. China "has hands down the clearest path to an AI-enabled path to a totalitarian nightmare." AI-intensive democracies can counter an autocratic state, and in our instance, "should not be selling chips, chip-making tools, or data centers to the CCP." We should also support democratic allies in their fight to hold off bad actors.

         If the business of AI continues to grow rapidly, it will have consequences in the labor market greater than any prior disruption. AI could eliminate half of the white-collar workforce's entry-level jobs, and it is already doing a considerable amount of the work on farms. Again, the AI companies, the government, and philanthropies will need to coordinate their responses to alleviate the dislocation.

       The last challenge is the unknown unknowns, which are difficult to anticipate. There is a possibility that the world will make a century's worth of progress in a decade.

        It is the author's hope and expectation that humanity will have "the strength and wisdom needed to prevail." His more optimistic Machines of Loving Grace will be posted soon.

Quicksand: America's Pursuit Of Power In The Middle East, Wawro - B++ Part I

         A century ago, the Arab world admired America above all the great European powers. Today, "almost every regime in the Middle East deplores our meddling in politics and culture." This book studies the US's entry into the Middle East, our impact on the region, and the global tremors that crack outward from that impact.

          The "languid and aristocratic" Arthur Balfour was considered a dreamy romantic, extremely lazy, and "lamentably ignorant." There were roughly ten times more Arabs than Jews in Palestine, which Balfour believed was populated largely by Turks. In November 1917, the Balfour Declaration promised "to facilitate the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people," while also stating that nothing should prejudice the civil and religious rights of the existing non-Jewish communities. Britain believed that the Zionists might be able to help them defend the Suez Canal. Zionist propagandists popularized the phrase that Palestine was "a land without people for a people without land."  Jews from Europe and money from America poured into Palestine in the 1920s and 1930s. After the Nazi takeover of Germany, 250,000 came from Germany and Austria. "Nazism, more than any other single factor, made the Holy Land Jewish." Fearing Arab anger and instability, Britain sharply restricted Jewish immigration. During the war and afterward, Britain faced rising Jewish terrorism, while some Arabs allied with Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy. At war's end, Palestine was a powder keg ready to explode. 

        If Palestine was a pestilential dead-end, Saudi Arabia was "a death-inducing wasteland." It became a country controlled by Ibn Saud in the 1930s, and in 1938, the American oil companies he had invited to search for oil found enormous deposits. Saudi Arabia had some of the world's greatest oil reserves, and its reserves would eventually dwarf those of many other countries. The US became the Saudi protector and beneficent friend. Throughout the Middle East, a system of living that had survived for millennia was replaced by an oil-extraction industry filled with foreigners and non-believers. An American characterized the Saudis as "a tenth-century society in the midst of a convulsive leap into the twentieth." Throughout the 1950s, Saudi wealth exploded, and an endless number of American companies went there to build highways, schools, cities, and a massive oil infrastructure. Notwithstanding the mutually beneficial relationship, each side viewed the other warily. Ibn Saud made clear to Churchill and Roosevelt that Arabia could never tolerate the establishment of a Jewish state in Palestine.  

          The end of the war saw a torrent of Europe's surviving Jews head to Palestine, with safety and survival on their minds. "The American public—saddened by Jewish suffering and largely unaware of Arab claims in Palestine—eagerly embraced the Zionist propaganda that appeared in every major newspaper." The Democratic administration was fully supportive, and domestic politics mattered, particularly the importance of Jewish voters in New York. America soon realized that this was a crisis with no black-and-white solution. "Appeasing the Arabs would harm Truman at home; appeasing the Jews would harm him abroad. That was the American security dilemma felt keenly by Truman in 1948," and ever since. The Israeli's quickly defeated the Arabs with the longest-lasting consequence being the displacement of roughly 700,000 Palestinians who became refugees. Some Americans warned of the potential rise of "fanatical Islamist regimes." The Palestine problem helped eliminate the possibility of moderation in the Arab world and became a rallying cry for generations of anti-American and anti-Israeli Muslims. US "policy defined in the war of 1948 and its messy aftermath would henceforth channel and distort American strategy in the Middle East." 

         In Iran, the UK and the US, from the 1920s on, were concerned about Stalin's desire to gain access to the oil fields the British had been developing since 1901. The Truman Doctrine helped contain Soviet influence, but did not alter Britain's very inequitable allocation of Iran's oil revenue. AIOC (Anglo-Iranian Oil Company) paid Iran a relatively small share of the profits under its concession, while American oil companies had negotiated 50-50 profit-sharing arrangements with Ryidah. In 1951, Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh, who leaned left and had used the communists in Iran to his advantage, nationalized AIOC, and Britain boycotted Iranian oil. Eisenhower's administration supported the 1953 coup that removed the prime minister and strengthened the Shah's position. Some Shiite clergy, fearful of communism, also supported Mosaddegh's ouster. Under the revised oil arrangement, Iran received 50 percent of the consortium's profits, while the British and American companies shared the other half. The Shah's regime held for another 25 years, but some in the State Department suggested that the Shah might fold if the Soviets ever attacked, and that he would spend his life living luxuriously while pouring money into a military machine that could prove to be a paper tiger. 

           For the US, "the Egyptian dynasty of King Farouk was yet another embarrassing vestige of the British empire." The corruption and poverty were such that almost everyone not on the payroll despised Farouk and the British. The US initially tried to work with the Free Officers who overthrew Farouk in 1952, on the belief that Egypt might be molded into an American beachhead. However, Nasser would become a dictator preaching Arab nationalism with a deep antipathy toward Israel. As the Soviets increasingly turned against Israel as an imperialist puppet, they looked to Nasser for a toehold in the region. He moved closer to the USSR after the US and Britain refused to supply arms. In 1953,  Israeli forces killed over a hundred Palestinian civilians, further inflaming Arab opinion and embarrassing the Eisenhower administration. Ike was shocked but faced strong domestic political pressures. Like Truman, he acknowledged "that there were 5 million Jewish voters in the US and very few Arabs." Nasser then nationalized the Suez Canal. Britain and France clamored for Nasser's removal, while Israel continued to build up the IDF, creating a small but first-rate armed force. The Israelis accepted a secret arrangement with Britain and France to join the campaign against Egypt. On October 29, 1956, Israel attacked Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. Britain and France then issued an ultimatum and entered the war under the pretext of separating the combatants and protecting the Canal. Eisenhower and Dulles were shocked at the brazen betrayal, particularly because the invasion occurred just before the US elections. Eisenhower demanded that the British and French cease fire. Khrushchev followed suit. The United States applied heavy financial pressure on Britain.  Britain and France withdrew, followed by Israel in early 1957. 

        The following decade saw Nasser aggressively pursuing Arab socialism and acquiring Soviet weapons. He worked to destabilize the region, while the US tried to work with him, then opposed him, and generally watched and fretted about communism and anti-Americanism. The Soviets were active in the Red Sea and Yemen, causing anxiety throughout Washington. They were looking to draw the Arabs closer and demonstrate the efficacy of their weapons and took steps to start a war even though the Arabs had fallen further and further behind the Israelis militarily. Fully 70 percent of Egypt's soldiers were illiterate, while Israel had a population with a much higher level of education. The Soviets warned the Syrians and Egyptians that Israel was preparing to attack. Nasser took the bait. He moved Egyptian troops into Sinai. On June 5, the Israelis launched an air attack that destroyed almost all of the Egyptian air force before breakfast. Jordan and Syria subsequently entered the war. Nasser falsely announced that the US had attacked Egypt. The IDF quickly reached the Suez Canal, took the Golan Heights from Syria, and captured the West Bank and East Jerusalem from Jordan. Israel had completely defeated the Arab armies and now possessed substantial strategic depth. The war also produced another large refugee movement, with displaced Palestinians and Syrians. Israel was now in control of the West Bank, Gaza, Sinai, East Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights. The Arabs met at Khartoum afterward and adopted the famous "three no's": no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, and no negotiations with Israel. Israel was now responsible for governing a large and hostile Palestinian population, a problem that has remained unresolved for decades. The US continues to weigh its need for access to oil against its philosophical and political commitment to Israel. 

         Weighing in at almost 900 pages, a midpoint break is the only sensible course for me. This book was published in 2015, and although well received in some corners, seems to have been largely ignored by the mainstream because of its very strong criticisms of Israel and America. Many people believe that the Arabs were  evicted from their land on a relatively flimsy pretense. However, there was an inevitability to what happened. In the late 19th century, there were 25,000 Jews in the Holy Land, and 75,000 by  1918. More poured in after the Balfour Declaration and in the ensuing two decades and those were the people who made the desert bloom, while the Arabs stood by. We must also note that every time the Arabs attacked, the Israeli's embarrassed them. The problem is intractable, and it's hard to envision any resolution.

Heather, Mullen - B+

         This novel is set in and around the Pine Barrens in the south of New Jersey, and has been labelled a mother-daughter story, although it sure looks like an excellent police procedural. Callie left town, excelled at Rutgers and in the state police drug group, and is back in a small town as Chief of Police. Her mother's DUI opens the book. Her mom is well-known as the sixteen-year-old who found the corpse of an infant on the side of the road in 1991. Callie opens the cold case and focuses on some local drug dealing. The cold case opens a plethora of interconnected and very troubling issues of sexual consent, paternity, and perhaps, inappropriate punishment, while the drug case eventually envelops the department. Another really good one.

Dissection Of A Murder, Murray - B+

         This is one helluva page-turning legal thriller set in Durham, England. Leila Reynolds is an up-and-coming barrister who has managed to overcome her blue-collar upbringing to crack the English class system. It doesn't hurt that she's very sexy, was mentored by the predatory head of Chambers, and is married to a KC, wearing the silk. She is assigned to defend a man accused of murder and is up against her husband, who is handling the prosecution. Behind the story of trial prep and drama lie multiple background themes of deprivation, infidelity, and murder that color the outcome and make this a must-read

Empire of Ashes: Truman, Hirohito, And The Descent Into Total War, Scott - A*

         "Truman and Hirohito: a former farmer and a socially awkward monarch. Upon the shoulders of this unlikely pair rested the fate of two nations and millions of lives." The unassuming and virtually unknown Truman became president on the afternoon of April 12th. Twelve days later, the Secretary of War briefed him on the Manhattan Project. Throughout the spring, planning for completion of the weapon continued, training for the delivery of the heavy bombs was conducted, and the targeting of cities analyzed.

         That spring, Japan's 44-year-old emperor sat in his palace and brooded as the city of Tokyo burned around him. The nation was being battered on every front, the war was obviously lost, and, most importantly, the people were giving up as they slowly starved to death. The very first firebombing of Tokyo in March killed 100,000, destroyed 260,000 buildings, and left a million homeless.

         Truman had to find the best way to end the war, and end it with the fewest American casualties. Gen. Marshall wanted to invade the home islands, and Adm. King preferred a blockade. Gen. LeMay thought that firebombing the cities would lead to surrender. On June 18th, the JCS recommended an invasion by 766,700 Americans, and Truman agreed. The same day, Hirohito met with the military council and told them that they needed to find a way to end the war.

         The president traveled to Potsdam, Germany, to meet Churchill and Stalin. He wanted the USSR to keep its promise to enter the war against Japan. On July 16th, at 5:30 a.m. in New Mexico, the US successfully tested the first atomic bomb. When someone observed that the war was over, Gen. Groves said, "After we drop two bombs on Japan." 

          Ongoing intelligence intercepts indicated Japan would fight and not accept unconditional surrender. Faced with the success of the bomb's test and fearing innumerable American casualties, Truman made the decision to drop the bomb at some point between July 22nd and 24th while in Potsdam. A final ultimatum, which used the phrase "the unconditional surrender of the Japanese armed forces," not of the country itself, was ignored by Japan. The die was cast, and the focus turned from Washington and Potsdam to Tinian, the home of the 509th Composite Group.

         On August 6th, thirty-year-old Col. Paul Tibbets took off in a specially modified B-29 carrying the 9,700-pound bomb. Tibbets had flown the 8th Air Force's first raid over France three years earlier. The bombardier released the Little Boy at 9:14 a.m. The airmen could see the mushroom cloud from 400 miles away.

            The president learned of the news in the middle of his Atlantic crossing; he announced the results to the jubilant crew of the Augusta. A prepared press release was issued in Washington. It said that Japan would be totally destroyed. In Tokyo, there was confusion as the army downplayed the bomb and the emperor demanded peace. On Tinian, Fat Man was prepared for August 9th, and it was released over Nagasaki at 11:58 a.m.

         Even the news of the second bomb did not convince the cabinet to surrender, and Hirohito agreed to meet them at midnight. After two and a half more hours of debate, they finally asked the emperor his thoughts. He stood. "I have given serious thought to the situation prevailing at home and abroad and have concluded that continuing the war can only mean destruction for the nation and a prolonging of bloodshed and cruelty in the world. It goes without saying that it is unbearable for me to see the brave fighting men of Japan disarmed. It is equally unbearable that others who have rendered me devoted service should now be punished as instigators of war. Nevertheless, the time has come that we must bear the unbearable."

         The following morning, Radio Tokyo broadcast an acceptance of terms but asked for a retention of the emperor's prerogatives. The US responded that the emperor would be "subject to" the supreme commander. The army and navy chiefs went to the palace and stated that they did not wish to surrender. There was fear in the city that junior officers would rebel and even kidnap Hirohito. On the 14th, he again told the military's leaders to surrender, and that he would address the nation by radio, stating the war was over. At that point, the senior leaders bowed to his command. The army chief asserted, "No officer in the Imperial Army will disobey the emperor's command." Hirohito recorded his speech that night. Hirohito's broadcast was made to the nation at noon on the 15th. The people of Japan had never heard his voice, as he told them they were accepting the terms of the Potsdam Declaration. Japan had lost, the war was over, and he directed the armed forces to surrender and sign all required documents presented by the Allies.

          For eight decades, the question of the necessity of bombing Hiroshima and Nagasaki has been debated. Those opposed speak to the inhumanity of it all, and argue that Japan would have surrendered anyway. Proponents say the attack on Pearl Harbor, the brutalities inflicted on the Bataan Death March, along with their horrific occupation of much of eastern Asia for four years justified the punishment inflicted. Furthermore, there were 900,000 men preparing to defend Kyushu in the expected November 1945 invasion. The Department of War manufactured 500,000 Purple Hearts that were never awarded. I personally believe the saving of American lives and the immediate cessation of hostilities justified Truman's decision. This is a brilliant, and highly recommended, history book.

Murder At The Hotel Orient, Ranelli - B -

         This is a delightful, charming, but somewhat lengthy and complex, mystery about a couple found dead in their hotel suite in today's Vienna. The Orient is a real-life love hotel, where rooms have been rented either overnight or in four-hour blocks since late in the Habsburg era. It features Sterling Lockwood, the sexy, mysterious American concierge and keeper of secrets. She helps the police because a murder in a place where everyone pays in cash and uses aliases is uniquely challenging, and she is a suspect simply because she was the only other person with access to the suite. Sterling also does not mind keeping her own past under wraps. Everyone in the Orient's world is extraordinarily circumspect and considerably disreputable. The investigation leads to innumerable twists and turns amongst Vienna's low lives before the surprising conclusion is reached. The consensus seems to be too cute for its own good.

The Silver Fish, - B -

         This spy thriller is set in Accra, Ghana. The overarching plot line is the rivalry between the US and China for control of the oil and internet in Africa. There are two parallel stories, one involving an American journalist, Dani, and the goings-on of two CIA men, Ford and Billy. Dani is a down-and-out journalist looking for a story, and she finds it. She uncovers the corruption of a relationship between the Chinese and some Ghanaian politicians. The Yanks are trying to turn a Ghanaian double into finding out more about the Chinese construction of a closed net that would avoid all American interference. The lines cross in a confusing, very bloody, and unsatisfying finale. The author is an intelligence professional who is a bit preachy about the security services.

I Spy, Kemp - B

        This is an intriguing, very brief spy thriller focused more on motherhood than tradecraft. After her romantic partner and fellow spy was murdered, pregnant Kendall retreated to a hopefully secure hidden life raising Rosie. When faced with a murderous threat, Ken calls in her former employer, a private security firm, to help, and they usher her back to London. She settles into a normal routine until it falls apart. Fun.

The Keeper, French - B+

          This novel is extraordinary. The author's ability to use dialogue is so authentic that you feel as if you're sitting in a pub in a small western Ireland farm town. Much more importantly, she plumbs the depths of the community's closeness and the extraordinary cliquishness of the rural Irish. She attributes the people's inability to tackle personal issues directly and their tendency to do things indirectly as a consequence of being oppressed and occupied by the English for centuries. But more than anything else, French tells a tale that strikes fear in you as you watch the powerful oppress, threaten, and intimidate the ordinary folks of Ardnakelty.

        The plot features Cal Hooper, a retired cop from Chicago, Lena, young Trey Reddy, Mart, Noreen, and the characters introduced in the previous two books. A young woman dies in a coroner-ruled suicide after she felt threatened by the local laird, Tommy Moynihan. The town falls apart before truth pulls it back onto its foundation. A must-read